MatchEdge AI
World Cup 2026 · Public Beta

World Cup 2026 Predictions & Match Probabilities

Explore model probabilities, expected goals, fair odds and confidence scores for World Cup 2026 matches.

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Upset watch
Brazil flagSpain flag
Brazil vs Spain
Spain priced as underdog at 33%
Open
Model confidence
Brazil flagSpain flag
Brazil vs Spain
Confidence 83 · Group Stage
Open
2026 Beta
48 teams · 16 host venues
Free during public beta. Pro launches before kickoff.
Open
Featured

Matches to watch

Live probability breakdowns for the highest-interest fixtures.

All matches
Group Stage
UpsetHigh · 76
Argentina flag
Argentina
32%
DRAW 32%
France flag
France
36%
xG
1.65–1.75
O 2.5
81%
BTTS
76%
Jun 16 · 08:00 PM
Deep Dive
Group Stage
UpsetHigh · 83
Brazil flag
Brazil
35%
DRAW 32%
Spain flag
Spain
33%
xG
1.74–1.66
O 2.5
81%
BTTS
76%
Jun 16 · 09:00 PM
Deep Dive
Group Stage
UpsetLow · 55
England flag
England
40%
DRAW 31%
Germany flag
Germany
29%
xG
1.85–1.55
O 2.5
81%
BTTS
73%
Jun 17 · 10:00 PM
Deep Dive
Group Stage
UpsetMedium · 62
Portugal flag
Portugal
37%
DRAW 32%
Netherlands flag
Netherlands
31%
xG
1.77–1.63
O 2.5
81%
BTTS
76%
Jun 17 · 11:00 PM
Deep Dive
Methodology

How the model works

Team strength ratings

Elo-style ratings updated after every international fixture, weighted by competition tier.

Expected goals (xG)

Per-team attacking and defensive xG distributions inform the match-level scoreline simulation.

Calibrated uncertainty

Every probability is paired with a confidence score so you know how strong the signal is.

Read full methodology
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MatchEdge AI is not betting advice. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Help is available if gambling stops being fun.

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Informational use only. MatchEdge AI provides statistical model estimates for World Cup 2026 matches. This is not betting advice. Probabilities reflect model uncertainty and should not be treated as guarantees. 18+ where applicable. Only bet where legal in your jurisdiction.